American Dust

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Electorial Vote Obama Vs McCain

Posted by americandust on March 10, 2008

  It’s SurveyUSA to the rescue of the Dems.  A recent SurveyUSA report claims Obama to have a “big” lead on McCain in head to head Electorial Voting.

However, if you look at SurveyUSA’s own numbers, you find that isn’t true.  First, they’re only surveying 600 registered voters (NOT the more accurate “likely voters” which tend to be a point or more likely to vote Republican).

Then, when you look at the numbers, Virginia is statistically a tie 47% for each, but SurveyUSA lumps that as a Obama state.  Let’s say McCain wins it by 1%, then McCain would win with 271-267.  Looks like Virginia could be the next Florida.  Of course with all those Muslims in Northern Virginia that won the Dems the last Senate race in Virginia, who knows, maybe they’ll turn out enough numbers to win that one for Obama.

But lets look at some oddities.  Does anyone believe that North Dakota is voting for Obama over McCain?  Only SurveyUSA appears to believe that–by four points.  I don’t.  That’s 3 electorial votes we’ll pop into a “toss-Up” category. 

Let’s look at the other tossups… NH and Michigan are both labeled Obama but are only 2 and 1 point leads there respectively.  North Carolina and South Carolina are both McCains by 3 points or less, as is a one point lead McCain has in Texas.  Seriously… you think Texas is going to stay that close after the Republicans attack Obama’s gun views, foreign policy inexperience, and general towing of the liberal line?  Me either… this one stays in McCain territory.

 That gives the toss ups 60 electorial votes.

Obama has 243, and McCain has 235.  Assuming McCain holds the Carolinas (Could Obama turn to Edwards as Veep and steal N.C.?), then McCain has 258.  McCain needs to win 13 more… It then becomes real simple:  Win Michigan OR Virginia.  Virginia voted for Bush twice…  Of Course McCain could probably flip Nevada and Colorado from the Obama camp where they sit right now…

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